UK food price inflation rose to 3.7% in April 2026 (up from 3.3% in March), with the cost of a basic weekly food basket up 29-36% since April 2022; energy shocks and climate-driven supply disruptions are flagged as key ongoing drivers.

Environmental shocks and geopolitical tensions could drive a rethink of inflation forecasting and policymaking, say David Barmes and Simon Dikau of LSE Grantham Research Institute.

David Barmes and Simon Dikau explain why intensifying environmental shocks and geopolitical tensions could drive a rethink of inflation forecasting and economic policymaking.