Newly arrived El Niño threatens to push costs higher across food, building materials, and other sectors, compounding supply disruptions already underway. (Paywall)

El Niño conditions expected to disrupt coffee, cocoa, palm oil, rice, sugar, and produce, pushing commodity prices higher and increasing food manufacturer input costs.

Schroders analysis warns a strong El Niño compounding fertilizer shortages and drought could historically imply a doubling of global food prices — with wheat and sugar seen as most exposed.

World Bank analysis identifies extreme weather events and La Niña conditions as primary upside risks to agricultural commodity prices in 2026, with climate shocks capable of pushing maize, wheat, and soybean prices above baseline forecasts.